Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Thu Aug 20 Fri Sep 18
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Sep 16, 2026

81106:0021:0007:49 · avg 4.0 kt · gust 7.6 kt07:59 · avg 3.8 kt · gust 6.5 kt08:09 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 6.5 kt08:19 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt08:29 · avg 3.7 kt · gust 6.5 kt08:39 · avg 3.6 kt · gust 6.5 kt08:49 · avg 3.5 kt · gust 4.9 kt08:59 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt09:09 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt09:19 · avg 3.0 kt · gust 4.3 kt09:29 · avg 4.1 kt · gust 6.5 kt09:39 · avg 3.6 kt · gust 4.9 kt09:49 · avg 2.8 kt · gust 4.3 kt09:59 · avg 2.9 kt · gust 4.3 kt10:09 · avg 3.1 kt · gust 4.9 kt10:19 · avg 3.3 kt · gust 4.3 kt10:29 · avg 2.3 kt · gust 4.3 kt10:39 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 5.9 kt10:49 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt10:59 · avg 2.9 kt · gust 4.3 kt11:09 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 3.2 kt11:19 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt11:29 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt11:39 · avg 0.3 kt · gust 1.6 kt11:49 · avg 0.2 kt · gust 1.6 kt11:59 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.5 kt12:09 · avg 1.4 kt · gust 2.2 kt12:19 · avg 1.3 kt · gust 2.2 kt12:29 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 2.2 kt12:39 · avg 2.4 kt · gust 3.2 kt12:49 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt12:59 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.5 kt13:09 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt13:19 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt13:29 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt13:39 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt13:49 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 4.3 kt13:59 · avg 6.8 kt · gust 14.6 kt14:09 · avg 9.4 kt · gust 23.2 kt14:19 · avg 15.8 kt · gust 30.8 kt14:29 · avg 14.5 kt · gust 30.8 kt14:39 · avg 15.4 kt · gust 30.8 kt14:49 · avg 15.9 kt · gust 25.9 kt14:59 · avg 14.5 kt · gust 20.5 kt15:09 · avg 12.3 kt · gust 22.1 kt15:19 · avg 12.4 kt · gust 24.8 kt15:29 · avg 13.9 kt · gust 26.5 kt15:39 · avg 11.6 kt · gust 18.9 kt15:44 · avg 12.2 kt · gust 17.8 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Sep 16, 2026

GO

11 of 14 rules green.

⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.

🤖 ML — logistic experimental MAYBE GO 23% · MAYBE 44% · NO GO 33%

Strongest inputs — (+) pressure Δ (thermik); (−) morning solar, dew-point spread.

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental MAYBE GO 24% · MAYBE 66% · NO GO 10%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure, Munich pressure.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.