30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.
Sep 9, 2026
avg wind
gust
ignition (8 kt)
session (11 kt)
For Sep 9, 2026 ·
as written at the time
NO GO
100% daytime cloud + only 56 W/m² solar — no insolation to drive a thermal
⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.
🤖 ML — logistic
experimental
NO GO
GO 15% ·
MAYBE 14% ·
NO GO 71%
Strongest inputs —
(+) dew-point spread; (−) morning solar, pressure Δ (thermik).
🤖 ML — HGB · black box
experimental
NO GO
GO 0% ·
MAYBE 1% ·
NO GO 99%
Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, daytime cloud, Innsbruck pressure.
Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict.
How good are they? →