Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Thu Aug 20 Fri Sep 18
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Aug 20, 2026

81106:0021:0006:46 Β· avg 3.5 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt07:19 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt07:29 Β· avg 5.4 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt07:39 Β· avg 4.4 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt07:49 Β· avg 2.9 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt07:59 Β· avg 1.3 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:09 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt08:19 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:29 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt08:39 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt08:49 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt08:59 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt09:09 Β· avg 0.7 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt09:19 Β· avg 0.3 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt09:29 Β· avg 0.9 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt09:39 Β· avg 0.6 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt09:49 Β· avg 0.4 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt09:59 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:09 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:19 Β· avg 2.2 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:29 Β· avg 1.5 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:39 Β· avg 4.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt10:49 Β· avg 7.6 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt10:59 Β· avg 9.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt11:09 Β· avg 9.5 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt11:19 Β· avg 9.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt11:29 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt11:39 Β· avg 7.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt11:49 Β· avg 8.5 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt11:59 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:09 Β· avg 8.0 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:19 Β· avg 7.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt12:29 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt12:39 Β· avg 6.5 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt12:47 Β· avg 6.3 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt13:34 Β· avg 0.4 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt13:49 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt13:59 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt14:09 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt14:14 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt14:29 Β· avg 0.8 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt14:37 Β· avg 2.2 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt15:08 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt15:47 Β· avg 8.7 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt16:39 Β· avg 11.2 kt Β· gust 17.8 kt16:49 Β· avg 9.7 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt16:59 Β· avg 5.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt17:09 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt17:19 Β· avg 3.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt17:27 Β· avg 3.8 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt17:39 Β· avg 7.0 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:49 Β· avg 4.8 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt17:58 Β· avg 5.8 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt18:04 Β· avg 3.8 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt18:19 Β· avg 5.6 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt18:23 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Aug 20, 2026

GO

9 of 14 rules green.

⚑ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front β€” watch the sky, come in early.

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental NO GO GO 34% Β· MAYBE 16% Β· NO GO 50%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) FΓΆhn Ξ”; (βˆ’) CAPE, Innsbruck pressure.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 4% Β· MAYBE 12% Β· NO GO 84%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure, overnight cloud.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.