Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Thu Aug 20 Fri Sep 18
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Sep 5, 2026

81106:0021:0009:45 · avg 4.9 kt · gust 8.6 kt10:19 · avg 2.6 kt · gust 4.3 kt10:29 · avg 1.2 kt · gust 3.2 kt10:39 · avg 3.6 kt · gust 11.9 kt10:49 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 13.5 kt10:59 · avg 8.3 kt · gust 10.8 kt11:09 · avg 2.9 kt · gust 8.6 kt11:19 · avg 4.6 kt · gust 9.2 kt11:29 · avg 7.9 kt · gust 11.9 kt11:39 · avg 14.5 kt · gust 20.0 kt11:49 · avg 15.4 kt · gust 20.0 kt11:59 · avg 14.4 kt · gust 22.1 kt12:09 · avg 14.6 kt · gust 21.6 kt12:19 · avg 15.4 kt · gust 20.5 kt12:29 · avg 16.1 kt · gust 21.6 kt12:39 · avg 15.4 kt · gust 22.1 kt12:49 · avg 15.2 kt · gust 20.0 kt12:59 · avg 15.1 kt · gust 20.0 kt13:09 · avg 14.6 kt · gust 17.8 kt13:19 · avg 16.4 kt · gust 20.0 kt13:29 · avg 15.2 kt · gust 17.8 kt13:39 · avg 14.0 kt · gust 17.3 kt13:49 · avg 14.2 kt · gust 17.3 kt13:59 · avg 14.2 kt · gust 17.3 kt14:09 · avg 14.2 kt · gust 16.2 kt14:19 · avg 13.0 kt · gust 15.1 kt14:29 · avg 11.3 kt · gust 17.8 kt14:39 · avg 10.2 kt · gust 17.3 kt14:49 · avg 8.4 kt · gust 13.5 kt14:59 · avg 9.7 kt · gust 14.6 kt15:09 · avg 10.3 kt · gust 15.1 kt15:19 · avg 7.9 kt · gust 13.5 kt15:29 · avg 7.3 kt · gust 11.9 kt15:39 · avg 2.5 kt · gust 5.9 kt15:49 · avg 0.9 kt · gust 2.2 kt15:59 · avg 0.7 kt · gust 1.6 kt16:09 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 3.2 kt16:19 · avg 0.2 kt · gust 1.6 kt16:29 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.5 kt16:39 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 1.6 kt16:49 · avg 1.4 kt · gust 3.2 kt16:59 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt17:09 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt17:19 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 2.2 kt17:29 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt17:39 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 1.6 kt17:49 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.5 kt17:59 · avg 1.0 kt · gust 2.2 kt18:09 · avg 0.3 kt · gust 2.2 kt18:14 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 1.6 kt18:49 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 2.2 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Sep 5, 2026 · as written at the time

NO GO

700 hPa crossflow 41 kt — valley decoupled

⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.

🤖 ML — logistic experimental NO GO GO 16% · MAYBE 13% · NO GO 72%

Strongest inputs — (+) dew-point spread; (−) pressure Δ (thermik), morning solar.

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental NO GO GO 0% · MAYBE 0% · NO GO 100%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.