Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Thu Aug 20 Fri Sep 18
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Aug 28, 2026

81106:0021:0007:19 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt07:29 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt07:39 Β· avg 0.8 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt07:49 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt07:59 Β· avg 4.8 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt08:09 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt08:19 Β· avg 4.8 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt08:29 Β· avg 6.9 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt08:39 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt08:49 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt08:59 Β· avg 5.1 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt09:09 Β· avg 4.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt09:19 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:29 Β· avg 3.4 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt09:39 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt09:49 Β· avg 7.7 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt09:59 Β· avg 6.7 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt10:09 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt10:19 Β· avg 5.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt10:29 Β· avg 2.2 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt10:39 Β· avg 4.6 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt10:49 Β· avg 10.0 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt10:59 Β· avg 13.7 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt11:09 Β· avg 13.6 kt Β· gust 20.5 kt11:19 Β· avg 14.0 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt11:29 Β· avg 14.0 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt11:39 Β· avg 14.6 kt Β· gust 20.5 kt11:49 Β· avg 11.3 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt11:59 Β· avg 10.6 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt12:09 Β· avg 9.0 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt12:19 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:29 Β· avg 7.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:39 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt12:49 Β· avg 10.2 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt12:59 Β· avg 22.5 kt Β· gust 44.3 kt13:09 Β· avg 20.9 kt Β· gust 33.5 kt13:19 Β· avg 23.2 kt Β· gust 35.1 kt13:29 Β· avg 23.3 kt Β· gust 29.2 kt13:39 Β· avg 21.2 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt13:49 Β· avg 19.9 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt13:59 Β· avg 17.1 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt14:09 Β· avg 16.3 kt Β· gust 23.2 kt14:19 Β· avg 14.0 kt Β· gust 20.5 kt14:29 Β· avg 14.2 kt Β· gust 17.8 kt14:36 Β· avg 14.3 kt Β· gust 17.8 kt15:08 Β· avg 14.1 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt16:29 Β· avg 5.2 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt16:39 Β· avg 9.9 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt16:49 Β· avg 9.4 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt16:59 Β· avg 9.3 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt17:09 Β· avg 9.5 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:19 Β· avg 7.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:21 Β· avg 2.7 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt17:47 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt18:15 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt18:29 Β· avg 0.8 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt18:39 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Aug 28, 2026

NO GO

700 hPa crossflow 33 kt β€” valley decoupled

⚑ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front β€” watch the sky, come in early.

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental NO GO GO 31% Β· MAYBE 21% Β· NO GO 48%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) FΓΆhn Ξ”; (βˆ’) dew-point spread, CAPE.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 14% Β· MAYBE 0% Β· NO GO 86%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure, Munich pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.