Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Thu Aug 20 Fri Sep 18
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Aug 29, 2026

81106:0021:0007:19 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt07:29 Β· avg 3.4 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt07:39 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt07:49 Β· avg 1.8 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt07:59 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt08:09 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:19 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:29 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:39 Β· avg 1.2 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:49 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt08:59 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:09 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:19 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt09:29 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:39 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:49 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt09:59 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:09 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:15 Β· avg 1.5 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:29 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:39 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:49 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:56 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:09 Β· avg 0.3 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:19 Β· avg 0.2 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:29 Β· avg 0.2 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:39 Β· avg 0.0 kt Β· gust 0.0 kt11:49 Β· avg 0.0 kt Β· gust 0.0 kt11:59 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt12:09 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt12:19 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:29 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:39 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:49 Β· avg 8.2 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:59 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt13:09 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt13:19 Β· avg 9.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:29 Β· avg 9.7 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:39 Β· avg 10.4 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt13:49 Β· avg 9.8 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt13:59 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:09 Β· avg 10.1 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt14:19 Β· avg 10.3 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt14:29 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt14:39 Β· avg 9.0 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt14:49 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt14:59 Β· avg 7.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:09 Β· avg 8.0 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:19 Β· avg 8.7 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:29 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt15:39 Β· avg 9.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt15:49 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:59 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt16:09 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt16:19 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt16:29 Β· avg 7.9 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt16:39 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt16:49 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt16:59 Β· avg 7.6 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt17:09 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt17:19 Β· avg 7.4 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt17:29 Β· avg 8.1 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt17:39 Β· avg 7.4 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt17:49 Β· avg 5.6 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt17:59 Β· avg 5.1 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt18:09 Β· avg 4.9 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt18:19 Β· avg 5.6 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt18:29 Β· avg 5.1 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt18:39 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt18:49 Β· avg 4.1 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt18:59 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt19:09 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt19:19 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt19:26 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Aug 29, 2026 Β· as written at the time

GO

11 of 14 rules green.

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental NO GO GO 32% Β· MAYBE 25% Β· NO GO 43%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) morning solar; (βˆ’) dew-point spread, FΓΆhn Ξ”.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental MAYBE GO 2% Β· MAYBE 64% Β· NO GO 34%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.