Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Thu Aug 20 Fri Sep 18
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Aug 29, 2026

81106:0021:0007:19 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt07:29 Β· avg 3.4 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt07:39 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt07:49 Β· avg 1.8 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt07:59 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt08:09 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:19 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:29 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:39 Β· avg 1.2 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:49 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt08:59 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:09 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:19 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt09:29 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:39 Β· avg 2.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:49 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt09:59 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:09 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:15 Β· avg 1.5 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:29 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:39 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:49 Β· avg 1.1 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:56 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:09 Β· avg 0.3 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:19 Β· avg 0.2 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:29 Β· avg 0.2 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:39 Β· avg 0.0 kt Β· gust 0.0 kt11:49 Β· avg 0.0 kt Β· gust 0.0 kt11:59 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt12:09 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 5.9 kt12:19 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:29 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:39 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:49 Β· avg 8.2 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:59 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt13:09 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt13:19 Β· avg 9.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:29 Β· avg 9.7 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:39 Β· avg 10.4 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt13:49 Β· avg 9.8 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt13:59 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:09 Β· avg 10.1 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt14:19 Β· avg 10.3 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt14:29 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt14:39 Β· avg 9.0 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt14:49 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt14:59 Β· avg 7.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:09 Β· avg 8.0 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:19 Β· avg 8.7 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:29 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt15:39 Β· avg 9.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt15:49 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:59 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt16:09 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt16:19 Β· avg 8.4 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt16:29 Β· avg 7.9 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt16:39 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt16:49 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt16:59 Β· avg 7.6 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt17:09 Β· avg 7.5 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt17:19 Β· avg 7.4 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt17:29 Β· avg 8.1 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt17:39 Β· avg 7.4 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt17:49 Β· avg 5.6 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt17:59 Β· avg 5.1 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt18:09 Β· avg 4.9 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt18:19 Β· avg 5.6 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt18:29 Β· avg 5.1 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt18:39 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt18:49 Β· avg 4.1 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt18:59 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt19:09 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt19:19 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt19:26 Β· avg 3.2 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Aug 29, 2026

GO

11 of 14 rules green.

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental NO GO GO 32% Β· MAYBE 25% Β· NO GO 43%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) morning solar; (βˆ’) dew-point spread, FΓΆhn Ξ”.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental MAYBE GO 2% Β· MAYBE 64% Β· NO GO 34%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.