Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Thu Aug 20 Fri Sep 18
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Aug 28, 2026

81106:0021:0007:19 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt07:29 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt07:39 Β· avg 0.8 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt07:49 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt07:59 Β· avg 4.8 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt08:09 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt08:19 Β· avg 4.8 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt08:29 Β· avg 6.9 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt08:39 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt08:49 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt08:59 Β· avg 5.1 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt09:09 Β· avg 4.1 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt09:19 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:29 Β· avg 3.4 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt09:39 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt09:49 Β· avg 7.7 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt09:59 Β· avg 6.7 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt10:09 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt10:19 Β· avg 5.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt10:29 Β· avg 2.2 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt10:39 Β· avg 4.6 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt10:49 Β· avg 10.0 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt10:59 Β· avg 13.7 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt11:09 Β· avg 13.6 kt Β· gust 20.5 kt11:19 Β· avg 14.0 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt11:29 Β· avg 14.0 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt11:39 Β· avg 14.6 kt Β· gust 20.5 kt11:49 Β· avg 11.3 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt11:59 Β· avg 10.6 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt12:09 Β· avg 9.0 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt12:19 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt12:29 Β· avg 7.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:39 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt12:49 Β· avg 10.2 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt12:59 Β· avg 22.5 kt Β· gust 44.3 kt13:09 Β· avg 20.9 kt Β· gust 33.5 kt13:19 Β· avg 23.2 kt Β· gust 35.1 kt13:29 Β· avg 23.3 kt Β· gust 29.2 kt13:39 Β· avg 21.2 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt13:49 Β· avg 19.9 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt13:59 Β· avg 17.1 kt Β· gust 25.9 kt14:09 Β· avg 16.3 kt Β· gust 23.2 kt14:19 Β· avg 14.0 kt Β· gust 20.5 kt14:29 Β· avg 14.2 kt Β· gust 17.8 kt14:36 Β· avg 14.3 kt Β· gust 17.8 kt15:08 Β· avg 14.1 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt16:29 Β· avg 5.2 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt16:39 Β· avg 9.9 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt16:49 Β· avg 9.4 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt16:59 Β· avg 9.3 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt17:09 Β· avg 9.5 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:19 Β· avg 7.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt17:21 Β· avg 2.7 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt17:47 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt18:15 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt18:29 Β· avg 0.8 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt18:39 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Aug 28, 2026 Β· as written at the time

NO GO

700 hPa crossflow 33 kt β€” valley decoupled

⚑ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front β€” watch the sky, come in early.

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental NO GO GO 31% Β· MAYBE 21% Β· NO GO 48%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) FΓΆhn Ξ”; (βˆ’) dew-point spread, CAPE.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 14% Β· MAYBE 0% Β· NO GO 86%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure, Munich pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.