Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Thu Aug 20 Fri Sep 18
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Aug 31, 2026

81106:0021:0007:29 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 2.2 kt07:39 · avg 2.3 kt · gust 4.3 kt07:49 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 5.9 kt08:49 · avg 8.6 kt · gust 10.8 kt08:50 · avg 7.6 kt · gust 10.3 kt09:53 · avg 11.9 kt · gust 13.5 kt10:09 · avg 11.3 kt · gust 15.1 kt10:19 · avg 11.7 kt · gust 14.6 kt10:29 · avg 10.5 kt · gust 15.1 kt10:39 · avg 10.4 kt · gust 13.5 kt10:49 · avg 11.1 kt · gust 13.5 kt10:59 · avg 11.4 kt · gust 14.6 kt11:09 · avg 11.6 kt · gust 14.6 kt11:19 · avg 11.4 kt · gust 13.5 kt11:29 · avg 11.6 kt · gust 14.6 kt11:39 · avg 11.5 kt · gust 16.2 kt11:49 · avg 11.1 kt · gust 16.2 kt11:59 · avg 10.8 kt · gust 17.8 kt12:09 · avg 11.2 kt · gust 16.2 kt12:19 · avg 10.7 kt · gust 13.5 kt12:29 · avg 12.1 kt · gust 15.1 kt12:39 · avg 11.5 kt · gust 15.1 kt12:49 · avg 11.3 kt · gust 16.2 kt12:59 · avg 11.9 kt · gust 16.2 kt13:09 · avg 10.9 kt · gust 17.3 kt13:19 · avg 11.3 kt · gust 15.1 kt13:29 · avg 10.9 kt · gust 17.8 kt13:39 · avg 10.5 kt · gust 14.6 kt13:49 · avg 11.2 kt · gust 16.2 kt13:59 · avg 11.1 kt · gust 16.2 kt14:09 · avg 12.2 kt · gust 16.2 kt14:19 · avg 10.3 kt · gust 15.1 kt14:29 · avg 10.6 kt · gust 16.2 kt14:39 · avg 12.4 kt · gust 16.2 kt14:49 · avg 13.4 kt · gust 18.9 kt14:59 · avg 12.1 kt · gust 21.6 kt15:09 · avg 10.9 kt · gust 24.3 kt15:19 · avg 11.4 kt · gust 17.3 kt15:29 · avg 10.1 kt · gust 15.1 kt15:39 · avg 11.4 kt · gust 17.8 kt15:49 · avg 12.3 kt · gust 24.3 kt15:59 · avg 12.2 kt · gust 17.8 kt16:09 · avg 12.3 kt · gust 21.6 kt16:19 · avg 14.2 kt · gust 23.2 kt16:29 · avg 14.0 kt · gust 21.6 kt16:39 · avg 14.0 kt · gust 21.6 kt16:46 · avg 12.7 kt · gust 20.0 kt17:29 · avg 13.5 kt · gust 15.1 kt17:38 · avg 11.3 kt · gust 17.3 kt18:39 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 5.9 kt18:44 · avg 5.0 kt · gust 7.6 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Aug 31, 2026 · as written at the time

NO GO

700 hPa crossflow 38 kt — valley decoupled

⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.

🤖 ML — logistic experimental NO GO GO 29% · MAYBE 18% · NO GO 53%

Strongest inputs — (−) pressure Δ (thermik), morning solar, daytime cloud.

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental NO GO GO 4% · MAYBE 3% · NO GO 93%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, daytime cloud, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.