Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Thu Aug 20 Fri Sep 18
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Aug 21, 2026

81106:0021:0007:19 · avg 4.9 kt · gust 8.6 kt07:29 · avg 4.9 kt · gust 8.6 kt07:39 · avg 2.0 kt · gust 3.2 kt07:49 · avg 2.0 kt · gust 4.3 kt07:59 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt08:09 · avg 3.4 kt · gust 6.5 kt08:19 · avg 2.9 kt · gust 4.3 kt08:29 · avg 2.3 kt · gust 4.3 kt08:39 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt08:49 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 2.2 kt08:59 · avg 1.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt09:09 · avg 0.8 kt · gust 2.2 kt09:19 · avg 1.2 kt · gust 3.2 kt09:29 · avg 0.9 kt · gust 2.2 kt09:39 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 1.6 kt09:49 · avg 1.0 kt · gust 2.2 kt09:59 · avg 0.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt10:09 · avg 0.6 kt · gust 2.2 kt10:19 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 1.6 kt10:29 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 3.2 kt10:39 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 3.2 kt10:49 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 5.9 kt10:59 · avg 4.4 kt · gust 6.5 kt11:09 · avg 4.7 kt · gust 7.6 kt11:19 · avg 6.8 kt · gust 8.6 kt11:29 · avg 7.5 kt · gust 10.3 kt11:39 · avg 6.3 kt · gust 8.6 kt11:49 · avg 5.3 kt · gust 8.6 kt11:59 · avg 5.0 kt · gust 7.6 kt12:09 · avg 4.8 kt · gust 7.6 kt12:39 · avg 3.5 kt · gust 6.5 kt12:49 · avg 7.5 kt · gust 10.8 kt12:55 · avg 6.6 kt · gust 9.2 kt13:09 · avg 3.5 kt · gust 8.6 kt13:19 · avg 3.8 kt · gust 7.6 kt13:29 · avg 3.5 kt · gust 6.5 kt13:39 · avg 3.7 kt · gust 6.5 kt13:49 · avg 4.9 kt · gust 9.2 kt13:59 · avg 6.2 kt · gust 10.3 kt14:09 · avg 4.5 kt · gust 8.6 kt14:19 · avg 5.6 kt · gust 8.6 kt14:29 · avg 5.0 kt · gust 7.6 kt14:39 · avg 5.3 kt · gust 8.6 kt14:49 · avg 4.4 kt · gust 6.5 kt14:59 · avg 2.7 kt · gust 7.6 kt15:09 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 4.3 kt15:19 · avg 3.7 kt · gust 6.5 kt15:29 · avg 1.2 kt · gust 3.2 kt15:39 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 1.6 kt15:49 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 8.6 kt15:53 · avg 5.4 kt · gust 7.6 kt16:39 · avg 22.1 kt · gust 32.9 kt16:42 · avg 22.7 kt · gust 36.2 kt17:09 · avg 4.9 kt · gust 7.6 kt19:07 · avg 6.9 kt · gust 9.2 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Aug 21, 2026 · as written at the time

NO GO

70% daytime cloud + only 314 W/m² solar — no insolation to drive a thermal

⚡ Storm risk: the thermal often runs well until the front — watch the sky, come in early.

🤖 ML — logistic experimental NO GO GO 24% · MAYBE 23% · NO GO 53%

Strongest inputs — (+) dew-point spread; (−) morning solar, pressure Δ (thermik).

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental GO GO 78% · MAYBE 2% · NO GO 19%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, overnight cloud.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.