Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Mon Oct 12 Tue Nov 10
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Oct 26, 2026

81106:0021:0007:29 Β· avg 0.0 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt07:39 Β· avg 3.5 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt07:49 Β· avg 4.0 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt07:59 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:09 Β· avg 1.6 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:19 Β· avg 3.0 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:29 Β· avg 4.6 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt08:39 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt08:49 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt08:59 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt09:09 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt09:19 Β· avg 2.9 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt09:29 Β· avg 0.7 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt09:39 Β· avg 0.3 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt09:49 Β· avg 1.4 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt09:59 Β· avg 1.0 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt10:09 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:19 Β· avg 2.1 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:29 Β· avg 2.8 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt10:39 Β· avg 1.3 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:49 Β· avg 2.2 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt10:59 Β· avg 5.2 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt11:09 Β· avg 6.5 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt11:19 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt11:29 Β· avg 5.0 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt11:39 Β· avg 4.8 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt11:49 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt11:59 Β· avg 8.5 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt12:09 Β· avg 8.2 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:19 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt12:29 Β· avg 10.0 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt12:39 Β· avg 9.9 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt12:49 Β· avg 9.7 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt12:59 Β· avg 8.2 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt13:09 Β· avg 8.2 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt13:19 Β· avg 6.9 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt13:29 Β· avg 6.3 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt13:39 Β· avg 7.9 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt13:49 Β· avg 6.2 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt13:59 Β· avg 6.0 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt14:09 Β· avg 6.6 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt14:19 Β· avg 6.2 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt14:29 Β· avg 6.8 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt14:39 Β· avg 6.4 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt14:49 Β· avg 6.6 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt14:59 Β· avg 8.6 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt15:09 Β· avg 8.7 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt15:19 Β· avg 8.3 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt15:29 Β· avg 7.1 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt15:39 Β· avg 4.9 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt15:49 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt15:59 Β· avg 2.2 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt16:09 Β· avg 0.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt16:19 Β· avg 1.2 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt16:29 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt16:39 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt16:49 Β· avg 2.7 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt16:59 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt17:00 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 26, 2026 Β· as written at the time

NO GO

700 hPa crossflow 35 kt β€” valley decoupled

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental MAYBE GO 12% Β· MAYBE 62% Β· NO GO 26%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) pressure Ξ” (thermik); (βˆ’) morning solar, FΓΆhn Ξ”.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental MAYBE GO 1% Β· MAYBE 87% Β· NO GO 12%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.