Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Mon Oct 12 Tue Nov 10
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Oct 22, 2026

81106:0021:0008:29 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt08:39 Β· avg 2.6 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt08:49 Β· avg 3.5 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt08:59 Β· avg 4.5 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:09 Β· avg 5.2 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt09:19 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:29 Β· avg 3.7 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:39 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt09:49 Β· avg 2.4 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:59 Β· avg 4.0 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt10:09 Β· avg 5.5 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt10:19 Β· avg 4.2 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:29 Β· avg 3.4 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:39 Β· avg 2.3 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt10:49 Β· avg 1.2 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt10:59 Β· avg 0.9 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt11:09 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 1.6 kt11:19 Β· avg 0.9 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt11:29 Β· avg 0.5 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt11:39 Β· avg 1.3 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt11:49 Β· avg 1.9 kt Β· gust 3.2 kt11:59 Β· avg 1.5 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:09 Β· avg 1.7 kt Β· gust 4.9 kt12:19 Β· avg 2.0 kt Β· gust 4.3 kt12:29 Β· avg 1.0 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt12:39 Β· avg 0.6 kt Β· gust 2.2 kt12:49 Β· avg 3.3 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt12:59 Β· avg 9.0 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:09 Β· avg 7.3 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt13:19 Β· avg 8.5 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt13:29 Β· avg 10.4 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt13:39 Β· avg 6.4 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:49 Β· avg 8.5 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt13:59 Β· avg 7.0 kt Β· gust 10.3 kt14:09 Β· avg 8.2 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:19 Β· avg 8.9 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:29 Β· avg 8.8 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt14:39 Β· avg 7.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt14:49 Β· avg 8.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt14:59 Β· avg 7.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt15:09 Β· avg 7.0 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt15:19 Β· avg 7.8 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:29 Β· avg 7.0 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:39 Β· avg 7.9 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt15:49 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt15:59 Β· avg 7.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt16:09 Β· avg 7.7 kt Β· gust 10.8 kt16:19 Β· avg 6.5 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt16:29 Β· avg 6.2 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt16:39 Β· avg 5.9 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt16:49 Β· avg 6.9 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt16:59 Β· avg 6.4 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt17:09 Β· avg 6.1 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt17:19 Β· avg 6.5 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt17:29 Β· avg 5.1 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt17:39 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt17:49 Β· avg 6.2 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt17:59 Β· avg 5.4 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt18:09 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt18:54 Β· avg 7.6 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 22, 2026 Β· as written at the time

GO

10 of 14 rules green.

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental MAYBE GO 10% Β· MAYBE 51% Β· NO GO 39%

Strongest inputs β€” (βˆ’) pressure Ξ” (thermik), morning solar, FΓΆhn Ξ”.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental NO GO GO 0% Β· MAYBE 0% Β· NO GO 100%

Most distinctive inputs: Innsbruck pressure, overnight cloud, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.