Walchensee wind: forecast and measurements

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast β€” logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast β€” HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session β‰₯ 1 h)
Mon Oct 12 Tue Nov 10
session (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 11 kt) marginal (β‰₯ 1 h β‰₯ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted Β· actual row: observed)

Oct 23, 2026

81106:0021:0009:39 Β· avg 4.4 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt09:49 Β· avg 4.1 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt09:59 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt10:09 Β· avg 5.3 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt10:19 Β· avg 3.5 kt Β· gust 7.6 kt10:29 Β· avg 3.5 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:39 Β· avg 3.4 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt10:49 Β· avg 4.3 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt10:59 Β· avg 4.7 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt11:09 Β· avg 4.6 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt11:19 Β· avg 4.8 kt Β· gust 9.2 kt11:29 Β· avg 2.9 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt11:39 Β· avg 8.0 kt Β· gust 15.1 kt11:49 Β· avg 9.7 kt Β· gust 20.0 kt11:59 Β· avg 10.1 kt Β· gust 20.0 kt12:09 Β· avg 10.8 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt12:19 Β· avg 10.9 kt Β· gust 17.8 kt12:29 Β· avg 11.5 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt12:39 Β· avg 10.4 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt12:49 Β· avg 9.1 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt12:59 Β· avg 8.2 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt13:09 Β· avg 8.3 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt13:18 Β· avg 7.2 kt Β· gust 13.0 kt13:21 Β· avg 5.9 kt Β· gust 6.5 kt14:29 Β· avg 14.9 kt Β· gust 20.0 kt14:39 Β· avg 14.1 kt Β· gust 20.0 kt14:49 Β· avg 15.2 kt Β· gust 21.6 kt14:59 Β· avg 14.7 kt Β· gust 18.9 kt15:09 Β· avg 11.2 kt Β· gust 17.3 kt15:19 Β· avg 12.3 kt Β· gust 20.0 kt15:29 Β· avg 11.3 kt Β· gust 16.2 kt15:39 Β· avg 8.6 kt Β· gust 14.6 kt15:49 Β· avg 8.6 kt Β· gust 11.9 kt16:49 Β· avg 8.6 kt Β· gust 8.6 kt16:51 Β· avg 11.1 kt Β· gust 13.5 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Oct 23, 2026

NO GO

850 hPa 20 kt from 200Β° (SSE) β€” counters the N-thermal

πŸ€– ML β€” logistic experimental MAYBE GO 21% Β· MAYBE 46% Β· NO GO 34%

Strongest inputs β€” (+) FΓΆhn Ξ”; (βˆ’) morning solar, dew-point spread.

πŸ€– ML β€” HGB Β· black box experimental GO GO 71% Β· MAYBE 0% Β· NO GO 29%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, Bolzano pressure.

Experimental shadow models β€” they never drive the verdict. How good are they? β†’

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated β€” shown for comparison only.