History

30 days of forecast vs. what actually happened at the lake. Click a single day to see its details.

Last 30 days

Rule-based forecast (actually used)
ML-based forecast — logistic (experimental)
ML-based forecast — HistGradientBoosting (black-box model, experimental)
Actual measurements (session ≥ 1 h)
Sun Jun 28 Mon Jul 27
session (≥ 1 h ≥ 11 kt) marginal (≥ 1 h ≥ 8 kt) no wind no data thunderstorm (forecast rows: predicted · actual row: observed)

Jul 26, 2026

81106:0021:0008:29 · avg 5.9 kt · gust 8.6 kt08:32 · avg 3.2 kt · gust 8.6 kt08:59 · avg 4.6 kt · gust 6.5 kt09:04 · avg 3.9 kt · gust 5.9 kt09:49 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 2.2 kt09:50 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 2.2 kt10:37 · avg 1.0 kt · gust 2.2 kt11:09 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 1.6 kt11:19 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 1.6 kt11:49 · avg 1.0 kt · gust 2.2 kt11:59 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt12:09 · avg 1.6 kt · gust 3.2 kt12:19 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt12:29 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 3.2 kt12:39 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt12:49 · avg 2.0 kt · gust 3.2 kt12:59 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt13:09 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 2.2 kt13:19 · avg 1.2 kt · gust 2.2 kt13:29 · avg 0.9 kt · gust 2.2 kt13:39 · avg 0.3 kt · gust 1.6 kt13:49 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 2.2 kt13:59 · avg 1.4 kt · gust 2.2 kt14:09 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt14:19 · avg 2.2 kt · gust 4.3 kt14:29 · avg 2.0 kt · gust 3.2 kt14:39 · avg 2.1 kt · gust 4.3 kt14:49 · avg 1.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt14:59 · avg 1.1 kt · gust 3.2 kt15:09 · avg 0.8 kt · gust 2.2 kt15:19 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt15:29 · avg 0.8 kt · gust 2.2 kt15:39 · avg 0.9 kt · gust 2.2 kt15:49 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 2.2 kt15:59 · avg 1.7 kt · gust 3.2 kt16:09 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 1.6 kt16:19 · avg 0.2 kt · gust 1.6 kt16:29 · avg 0.3 kt · gust 1.6 kt16:39 · avg 0.3 kt · gust 1.6 kt16:49 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 1.6 kt16:59 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt17:09 · avg 0.3 kt · gust 1.6 kt17:19 · avg 0.5 kt · gust 1.6 kt17:29 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 3.2 kt17:39 · avg 0.7 kt · gust 2.2 kt17:49 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt17:59 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 1.6 kt18:09 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt18:19 · avg 0.1 kt · gust 0.5 kt18:29 · avg 0.8 kt · gust 3.2 kt18:39 · avg 1.4 kt · gust 3.2 kt18:49 · avg 1.3 kt · gust 2.2 kt18:59 · avg 0.7 kt · gust 2.2 kt19:09 · avg 0.0 kt · gust 0.0 kt19:19 · avg 0.4 kt · gust 1.6 kt19:29 · avg 1.5 kt · gust 3.2 kt19:33 · avg 2.3 kt · gust 3.2 kt
avg wind gust ignition (8 kt) session (11 kt)
For Jul 26, 2026 · as written at the time

MAYBE

Δ=-1.2 hPa — pressure gradient pushing against the thermal

🤖 ML — logistic experimental NO GO GO 16% · MAYBE 22% · NO GO 62%

Strongest inputs — (−) morning solar, Bolzano pressure, Innsbruck pressure.

🤖 ML — HGB · black box experimental MAYBE GO 39% · MAYBE 43% · NO GO 19%

Most distinctive inputs: morning solar, Innsbruck pressure, overnight cloud.

Experimental shadow models — they never drive the verdict. How good are they? →

Previous forecast method

How the day was forecast at the time, before the rules were recalibrated — shown for comparison only.